Chief Economist at the Macro Investor Leith van Onselen shared his 12-month price forecasts for Australia’s capital city housing markets based on consideration of key price drivers: housing finance; housing supply; affordability; and the macroeconomic outlook.
Canberra: -3% to 0%
Relative to the rest of the nation, Canberra’s housing market has displayed resilience, with values declining by 5.0 per cent (houses) and 7.9 per cent (units) since peak, according to RP Data-Rismark.
However, the outlook for the capital is mixed, resulting in projected price shift of between minus-3 per cent to 0 per cent over the coming year.
Although Canberra’s housing market is relatively affordable – with prices relative to both incomes and rents below the national average – the supply situation has deteriorated somewhat, driven by a recent housing construction boom, as well as a near doubling in the number of homes offered for sale over the past two years. Canberra’s rental vacancy rate, too, has been rising, although it remains roughly half that of the national average.